In this article, we discuss the captain picks, the popular Chelsea trio of Rogers, Palmer and Pedro, playing Triple Captain on one of them, and non-Chelsea picks.
Captaincy
So who really is the best captain this week?
It’s safe to assume a Chelsea player takes top spot. With the Blues facing Hull City at home, while the Manchester derby dents appeal of both Haaland and Bruno, Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro become the leading options.
So let’s weigh up which of them is best, and what alternatives there are for the brave managers who want to go against the Chelsea train.
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer is certainly a standout this week. He’s on penalties, has a free-kick share, and as we know, has a very explosive hattrick in him.
The stats show that while his xGI numbers are a little lower than teammates Pedro and Rogers, he leads them both for shots, and against a Hull City team whose philosophy is a scrappy style of play, and who have spent the last year making fun of xG, perhaps shot volume might be the key.
Statistically, it’s very close between him and Joao Pedro.
Chelsea do play a Carabao Cup game home to Leeds tonight, so we’ll have to see what comes of that.
The data snapshot (later in the article) does suggest Pedro has rather the upper hand overall though, and without penalties, it would be the Brazilian easily winning this debate. Palmer just about loses out in the snapshot, but there’s almost nothing to split the pair. With spot-kicks, Palmer becomes an extremely strong option.
Joao Pedro
Joao Pedro, as mentioned above, is a very solid pick. His numbers of 0.69 xG/90 comfortably beat Palmer’s 0.44. However, the sample size is only three games, but you’d still expect Pedro, as the striker, to match Palmer’s xG numbers.
So is Palmer still as good a pick?
Well, shot volume very slightly leans in Palmer’s favour, but that’s not much against the xG disparity. The main reason is set pieces. Palmer is on penalties and free-kicks, against a side who are expected to concede many fouls.
For most people, Palmer is the flair player, which means he has the ability to outdo his xG. Another important point is that he gets an extra point for a goal, and one for a clean sheet too.
With most of the ‘experts’ seeming to pick Palmer, here might be a chance to beat them for once.
Erling Haaland
You can never count out Erling Haaland, even when he visits Old Trafford while Chelsea welcome Hull to West London.
However, it’s fair to say he isn’t a fan of playing United away from home.
Despite scoring six times against them at the Etihad, his only returns at Old Trafford came in October 2023, when he scored a brace against a Manchester United side who included Sergio Reguilon, Sofyan Amrabat and Jonny Evans.
It’s very hard to take this as a sign he’s unlikely to score – he’s always a goal threat. But with Chelsea’s fixture providing not one, but two players with immense potential, Haaland is rather out of the picture.
We saw a similar situation in GW2 – Bruno Fernandes playing Ipswich at home attracted loads of managers, and despite scoring a brace, Haaland wasn’t the best captain.
Check out our Fixture Ticker featuring dynamic ratings on each team!
Triple Captain?
With both Palmer and Pedro being great options as discussed, is it worth the Triple Captaincy chip?
Well, that depends on Chelsea’s midweek fixture, first of all. Erling Haaland scored a brace against Porto, reminding us that he is the best player in the game and therefore, he should be the best option for the Triple Captain chip.
His schedule around the target GW7 Ipswich game is pretty packed, however, so it’s likely that should City be comfortably leading, Haaland will be given a rest.
However, his fitness is a key strength, having played 90 minutes in all competitive games so far.
The Community Shield loss to Arsenal (visible above) could offer some clues. Maresca saw Haaland, along with Foden, Anderson and O’Reilly, off by the hour, as his side were already 3-0 down. Could this be simply because the Community Shield isn’t a serious game, or was this a sign that Maresca is happy to rest players when the match is done and dusted?
Realistically, Haaland will likely be involved anyway, even if he was subbed off. He has a 55% goal involvement rate, and City would obviously need more than one goal for the game to be put to bed. Plus, he’s on penalties. It would take a lot to dislodge him as the best Triple Captain option for the first half of the season. Even if something happens before GW7, GW16 remains a great option, when he plays Hull at home.
The 5 FPL differentials who could reward BIG ahead of GW4!
Conclusion: Joao Pedro is the best captain this week, but there is almost nothing between him and Cole Palmer.
As for Triple Captaincy, it could be worth a punt, but Haaland home to Ipswich in GW7 remains the standout option.
Alternative options
The data snapshot shows two more captaincy options – Morgan Rogers and Alexander Isak.
Both have the potential to come away with a brace and outscore the top three on the list – but it’s unlikely.
Isak in particular has appeal. Though he is theoretically worse than Rogers, and thus ranked lower, there is a reason why he could be a better option this week.
Simply, if you are going against Palmer, Pedro, and Haaland, you want them to do badly while your captain does well.
But if Rogers does well, it’s very likely Palmer and Pedro do better, or match him at least.
By contrast, if Isak does well, and the Chelsea attack flops, you could come away with a pretty big green arrow.
Obviously, captaining anyone not called Palmer or Pedro is a very risky move. But when you are prepared to take that risk, other names stand out.
If you are looking for more FPL GW4 differentials, tips and advice, here is the place to be!
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- 9 of the BEST FPL cheap players and bargains for the new 26/27 season!
More FPL GW4 tips and advice coming soon!
Check out FPL Ticker before the new season, with tips, advice, FPL best players to buy, and more!
And don’t forget our FPL edition of the popular 38 and 0 game!
Our advanced transfer planner is here. Including a special FPL innovation – the player meter! (currently down – should be back in time for GW4)
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