In this article, we take a look at 5 low-owned FPL picks who have the stats, fixtures, and potential to do extremely well in the next 3 weeks.
We analyse the underlying data after 3 Gameweeks, as well as the Fixture Ticker, to put this list together, which includes a 3.4% owned defender who has 13 defcons per game as well as four more big GW4 differentials who could haul big.
Gonzalo Garcia – FWD, £6.0m, 4.3% owned
Gonzalo Garcia has racked up great numbers for Fulham so far this year, having played 90 minutes in all three of their games. He only scored once, in their opening fixture, but his underlying data suggests he deserves a little more, with consistent numbers.
He’s had more shots than any other forward except Haaland, and is also joint second for shots in the box (no surprise, Haaland is number one).
Concerningly, he’s only managed to direct one of those on target, which was the goal against Chelsea. However, with the unbelievable run of all three promoted teams in GWs 6, 7, and 8, Garcia is likely to return big, especially as the start-of-the-season wonders inevitably wear off for Hull City.
As for the two games before that, it’s a chance to beat the pack to the Spanish striker. Both Manchester United and Liverpool have looked shaky in the opening games, making a case for starting Garcia, but you can always bench him or even buy him later.
Thierno Barry – FWD, £5.6m, 5.4% owned
With his main positional rival Beto having secured a move to Fiorentina at the very end of the transfer window, and Everton having dramatically failed to secure a replacement, Thierno Barry is now Everton’s only striker.
While David Moyes might opt to use someone like Tyrique George out of position, Barry’s minutes are likely to go up. Indeed, he played all 90 minutes against Manchester United, a sign of things to come. And with no Europe for Everton either, he looks like a very solid FPL pick.
Barry has impressed in the underlying data this season, with 4 big chances and 2.31 xG, numbers that can only be beaten by Erling Haaland and Bruno Fernandes.
So his xG has been stunning lately – it’s just about whether he can convert those chances. Historically, he hasn’t been the best finisher, but you’d back him to get enough chances against the likes of Ipswich and Hull to be able to fire in the goals.
A big bonus is penalty share. It’s unclear who might take them for Everton this year, but Barry is in the picture. He hasn’t really taken penalties in his career before, having scored two out of three in his career so far.
Marcus Tavernier – MID, £6.0m, 3.1% owned
Marcus Tarvernier’s ownership does not do him justice. With two double digit hauls so far, and a defensive contribution threat that isn’t terrible, and a share of penalties, he could be a solid, reliable pick for the long-term.
Playing on the right flank for the Bournemouth side, his routes to points are what makes him appealing. He takes right-sided corners, free-kicks, and as mentioned before, has a share of penalties.
Although primary penalty-taker Justin Kluivert has now returned from injury, Tavernier is nailed for 90 while Kluivert is historically injury-prone. And with the Europa League coming up soon, it’s safe to assume Tavernier will have a little bit of penalty share at least. He took two penalties last year, scoring both.
With positional versatility, 9 shots, and 5 on target, Tavernier’s long-term fixtures become the just another bonus for anyone looking for a reliable fourth or fifth midfielder.
Pedro Neto – MID, £6.5m, 1.3% owned
Pedro Neto, at first glance, may not appear to be a good pick. His numbers aren’t amazing, and he isn’t on set pieces.
However, playing as a wing-back doesn’t mean he can’t get forward, as his heatmap shows. He’s racked up 0.50 xGI per 90, and has looked threatening on the right hand side for Arsenal. His slight uncertainty over minutes means he’s best as a short-term punt, for Free Hitters or those needing a midfielder before they Wildcard, but can’t afford all three of Pedro, Palmer and Rogers.
Tarik Muhamerovic – DEF, £5.0m, 3.4% owned
Having been hyped up preseason as the new DEFCON monster, it’s rather a surprise that Tarik Muhamerovic has less than 5% ownership. He’s lived up to his expectations pretty well, with 39 (!) defcons across the first three games. That’s 13 per game, and with his record of 10.86 per 90 in Serie A last year, the trend looks set to continue.
It’s important to note that Leeds as a team are well suited for DEFCON. Topping the tables for interceptions and clearances as a unit so far, and with numbers nearly as good last season, Muharemovic and Leeds seem like the perfect DEFCON unit.
His next two fixtures are home games where he has potential for a 10 or 11 pointer, while he is also one of those players who can just be played every week, even until the end of the season.
FPL GW4 differentials list
If you are looking for more FPL GW4 differentials, tips and advice, here is the place to be!
- GW3’s best players to buy for FPL – Cherki + differentials
- FPL GW3 tips – Best Man City attackers, Wildcard and more!
- FPL chip strategy – Why Wildcarding in Gameweek 6 could be a trap in FPL – and which other week stands out
- A detailed look at Coventry City in FPL
- 9 of the BEST FPL cheap players and bargains for the new 26/27 season!
More FPL GW4 tips and advice coming soon!
Check out FPL Ticker before the new season, with tips, advice, FPL best players to buy, and more!
And don’t forget our FPL edition of the popular 38 and 0 game!
Our advanced transfer planner is here. Including a special FPL innovation – the player meter! (currently down – should be back in time for GW4)
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